"FINANCIAL ILLUSIONS OF THE WAR"
The Pathetic Failure of Man's Theories — Ruthlessly Shattered by the March of Events
"THE war has been breaking down principles, overturning axioms, shattering theories, in every direction. We have seen this statement overwhelmingly proved in military, in naval affairs. No less is it true in finance. In the school of finance, as well as that of the army and navy, there were certain tenets that men had long clung to which proved to be great illusions."
The foregoing sentences form the opening paragraph of a significant article by Thomas W. Lamont, in Harper's Magazine for July. Mr. Lamont is one of the partners in the house of J. P. Morgan & Co., the great international banking firm of Wall Street.
Holland, in the Wall Street Journal, commenting upon Mr. Lamont's article, says, "He [Lamont] and those associated with him are persuaded that the United States must face, and if possible accept, very great responsibilities at the close of the European war." Mr. Holland also suggests that aside from some occasional addresses by the president of the National City Bank of New York, and other incidental addresses made by some of the expert authorities, "Mr. Lamont's article is the only one that has been written by a man of high authority since the European war began which deals with momentous subjects that are the offspring of the conflict." IN view of Mr. Lamont's prominent position and unrivaled facilities for knowledge in the world of finance, his utterances should demand careful attention.
He presents three great illusions that have been dispelled by the war. He says, "To begin with, there was the favorite theory that the great international bankers could prevent war."
Then he calls attention to the "famous Six-Power Group" of bankers that President Taft and Secretary Knox formed with the purpose of preserving the integrity of China. This financial group was made up of the leading bankers of the United States, England, France, Germany, Russia, and Japan. The hope in combining these great financial powers was that "such an entente cordiale in great finance would be established as would absolutely prevent war. It was argued that if the Six-Power Group, in accord as to the distressing economic effect which any great war must have upon all the nations, declared together to their respective governments that they would finance no wars, the governments would find, perforce, that all their paths were paths of peace."
"For the moment," continues Mr. Lamont, "this principle, which many intelligent people pronounced to be sound, seemed actually to be in effect." Then he refers to the Agadir or Moroccan incident, over which "the German kaiser was described as being eager to declare war on France," when "he was flatly told by the great German bankers in Berlin and Frankfort that Germany was at that time in no condition to finance a great war. The accepted dictum of these German bankers was at once acclaimed as establishing the soundness of the general theory."
But to use again the words of Mr. Lamont: "When the storm clouds of the present war were gathering, the opinion of the great groups of bankers counted apparently for nothing. . . . On the main question of war or peace, they were not even consulted." Mr. Lamont's conclusion in regard to this theory is that "on August 1, 1914, this interesting theory was disposed of promptly, and perhaps for all time." The second theory which this great banker puts forward as having been necessarily discarded is "that the cost of a world war, such as this, was bound to be so stupendous as to enforce an early peace"; for, he continues, "statisticians for years had been wagging their heads, and saying that the per diem cost of any great power at war would run up to the ruinous figure of $5,000,000. This belief was partially based on the figures of our own Civil War, when, in its final weeks, the daily cost to the Federal government was estimated at $3,000,000." BUT the $5,000,000 a day that was the estimated cost to a great power like England, Germany, etc., in case of war, was very far below the facts. England, in a very little while, found herself expending $10,000,000 a day; and this increased so rapidly that it is found, according to the last statement of Mr. Asquith, that England is spending $25,000,000 a day. The other leading nations involved in the struggle are also spending the following daily sums:
Germany, $22,000,000; France, $15,500,000; Russia, $16,000,000; Austria, $12,000,000; Italy, $8,000,000; Turkey, $1,500,000; Servia, $1,500,000; Belgium, $1,500,000.
According to the estimates, $30,000,000 a day would have been sufficient to finance the six great powers of England, Germany, France, Russia, Austria, and Italy, should they go to war; but the facts show that they are expending instead about $100,000,000, or practically three and one third times as much as the most careful estimates would have provided for. But notwithstanding this stupendous and staggering expenditure, the war has driven on furiously for two whole years, and, in the words of Mr. Lamont, "Thus another fond theory, that of heavy expenditures forcing an early peace, is shattered."
Mr. Lamont, however, would have the people of the world get some comfort out of the idea that the percentage of expenditure in proportion to the national wealth is really not so great as it was for the nations that were involved in the Napoleonic wars. Another Financial Tradition Abandoned
THE "third financial tradition that has had to be abandoned" "is the one that international trade and exchange, soundly built up for a series of generations, was so firmly established that nothing could wreck it." "Another great illusion!" continues Mr. Lamont; "for when the war came, our exchanges broke down overnight. . . . All precedents, all traditions, went by the board. As Frederick Scott Oliver says, in his admirable 'Ordeal by Battle,' there is no further use in declaring a thing unthinkable, when we have only to look about us and see that the unthinkable has become true."
The world renowned New York banker also speculates in regard to such strong governments as Great Britain, France, and Russia repudiating their debts after the war is over. He believes that such a repudiation would be "out of the question." He also informs us that "many economists are studying conditions as they appeared at the close of the Napoleonic conflicts, the War of the Rebellion, and the Franco-Prussian struggle, hoping from the study of such phenomena to be able to form sound, working theories for the coming post bellum period."
Among these economists who are studying the situation there are "two general schools. One holds to the belief that business prostration in the now warring countries will be complete and prolonged. . . . This school holds, furthermore, that the wastage of human life will have been so great that abroad there will be a dearth of labor, both skilled and unskilled; and that490almost a generation, in point of time, will pass before this wastage of life will have been replaced and normal conditions of life brought back. . . . The same school points out, too, that the belligerent nations will suffer grievously from the loss of a whole generation of educated and trained young men, who naturally would have been the leaders in science and industrial progress over the next two decades." The other school of economists affirms that the destruction of capital will be found to be greatly overestimated, and that soon "the returning soldier" will "beat his sword into a plow-share," and everything will move on as before. Adjusting Their Shattered Illusions
If men would give half the attention to the study of what the divine Book says concerning these days in which we live, they would not be under the necessity of continually adjusting themselves to the shattering of so many illusions. Without any question whatever, we are standing in the open door of that great period so strongly set forth in the Bible as "the day of the Lord." Concerning this day, the prophet Zephaniah has foretold:
"That day is a day of wrath, a day of trouble and distress, a day of wasteness and desolation, a day of darkness and gloominess, a day of clouds and thick darkness, a day of the trumpet and alarm against the fenced cities, and against the high towers. And I will bring distress upon men, that they shall walk like blind men, because they have sinned against the Lord: and their blood shall be poured out as dust, and their flesh as the dung." Zeph. 1: 15-17.
Through the prophet Isaiah, we have the striking announcement that "the Lord will come with fire, and with His chariots like a whirlwind, to render His anger with fury, and His rebuke with flames of fire. For by fire and by His sword will the Lord plead with all flesh: and the slain of the Lord shall be many." Isa. 66: 15, 16.
And again we have the words through the prophet Jeremiah: "A noise shall come even to the ends of the earth; for the Lord hath a controversy with the nations, He will plead with all flesh; He will give them that are wicked to the sword, saith the Lord. Thus saith the Lord of hosts, Behold, evil shall go forth from nation to nation, and a great whirlwind shall be raised up from the coasts of the earth. And the slain of the Lord shall be at that day from one end of the earth even unto the other end of the earth: they shall not be lamented, neither gathered, nor buried; they shall be dung upon the ground." Jer. 25: 31-33.
The prophet Ezekiel speaks of God’s "four sore judgments" as follows: "For thus saith the Lord God; How much more when I send My four sore judgments upon Jerusalem, the sword, and the famine, and the noisome beast, and the pestilence, to cut off from it man and beast?" Ezek. 14: 21. Centering in This Generation
THE inspired Book is freighted with evidence which shows that the fulfillment of all the prophecies pertaining to the second coming of Christ is centering in this very generation in which we live. Tremendous wars are to curse the age. And, as stated in the foregoing passage quoted from Jeremiah, the Lord has a controversy with the nations, He will plead with all flesh, and He will give the wicked to the sword. As expressed by Zephaniah, distress will come upon men until they will be found walking like blind men, "because they have sinned against the Lord."
Sin, as manifested in every form of vice and crime, is rampant throughout the world. The conditions force men everywhere to acknowledge this. Social and political corruption is flooding the whole earth, and even the professing church of Christ itself is not awake to the situation.
All sorts of discordant theories in regard to the prospects for this world in the immediate future are put forth. Men are trying to make us believe that out of this awful welter of blood and violence and strife that confronts us on every hand, a millennium of righteousness can be produced; but God’s word is all on the other side of the question. Theories have indeed been shattered; and there are many more theories forming that are out of harmony with the divine Book, and that are yet to be shattered. Why will not men take the truth, when the divine Father has been so kind as to reveal it to us abundantly in His word?
We may theorize in regard to peace and prosperity in this world; we may put forth the doctrine that during this war, men will become so disgusted with strife that they will never fight again; but this war will only lay the foundation for the world’s headlong plunge into the Armageddon that is almost reached.
Men may continue to theorize, if they will insist upon doing it, only to have these theories shattered by the great procession of events that is on its terrific march through this world. But while men are thus theorizing and speculating, there stands the infallible Word, with its blazing light, beckoning us to discard our speculative theories and to see and understand. Will we do it?